The bias exploited
Optimism bias refers to our tendency, documented including in neuroimaging studies, to overestimate the likelihood of favorable events happening to us personally. A scenario that benefits us — winning, being refunded, landing an exceptional return — is spontaneously judged more plausible than it really is, which lowers our critical guard against an offer that's too good to be true.
Source: Sharot, T. (2011), "The Optimism Bias," Current Biology, 21(23). Accessed 07/17/2026.Three real cases
🪙The fake guaranteed-return platform
A fraudulent crypto investment platform displays fictitious gains in real time and even allows a first small withdrawal — to reinforce the credibility of the promised gain before blocking any further withdrawal.
See Crypto Investment Scams🌍Confirmed by global fraud reports
Organizations tracking online fraud internationally consistently rank fake gain promises among the categories causing the most documented financial harm.
See Global Scam Report💼The job offer that's too generous
A fake job offer proposes pay far above market rate for minimal work — the unexpected gain makes the offer attractive before the fraud mechanism (money mule, upfront fee) reveals itself.
See Recruitment FraudHow to recognize it
An offer whose effort-to-benefit ratio seems abnormally favorable — an unclaimed refund, a guaranteed return, a prize won without entering a draw. Suspicion should scale with how generous the offer appears.
Definition freely reusable with credit ("Egidio — The Threat Lab") and a link to this page. See the full Grammar of Manipulation.