The reference foresight exercise
Since 2023, ENISA has run a dedicated foresight exercise — updated in 2024 — to identify the threats most likely to worsen through 2030. The method combines a structured survey of experts (Delphi method) with scenario workshops, not an improvised extrapolation. Of the ten trajectories it identifies, several concern individuals directly.
🧩Dependence on a handful of technology providers
ENISA ranks software supply-chain compromise at the top of its list: a flaw at a single widely used provider can ripple out to millions of end users at once, far beyond the company directly targeted.
ENISA, Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030 — Update 2024👥The shortage of cybersecurity skills
The shortage of trained professionals ranks second among identified trajectories — a less visible factor than the technology itself, but one that directly slows organizations' ability to detect and respond to increasingly automated attacks.
ENISA, Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030 — Update 2024🤖The abuse of artificial intelligence
ENISA explicitly identifies AI abuse as a trajectory in its own right — not just a factor that worsens other threats. It's already measurable today: the FBI opened a dedicated descriptor for AI-related complaints in 2026, with 22,000 reports and nearly $900 million in losses in the very first year.
ENISA, Update 2024 · FBI (IC3), 2026📡A handful of cloud providers as a single point of failure
The concentration of global digital services among a small number of cross-border infrastructure providers means an outage or attack at one of them can disrupt essential services across several countries at once.
ENISA, Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030 — Update 2024📰More sophisticated disinformation campaigns
ENISA lists advanced disinformation and information-manipulation campaigns among its ten major trajectories — a phenomenon already documented today and set to intensify as content-generation tools become ever more accessible.
ENISA, Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030 — Update 2024A trend already visible today
These projections aren't built from nothing: ENISA's latest annual threat-landscape report (2025, analyzing more than 4,875 incidents between July 2024 and June 2025) already observes a growing blur between hacktivists, cybercriminals and state-linked groups — shared tools, techniques and sometimes infrastructure. What ENISA calls an "environment of continuous and diversified pressure" isn't a hypothesis for 2030, then — it's a trajectory already under way.
Source: ENISA, Threat Landscape 2025.
Why static protection won't be enough
None of these trajectories point toward a slowdown. If attack techniques keep evolving at the pace ENISA and the FBI already document, protection built on a list of numbers or keywords frozen at a single point in time is necessarily falling behind. That's why Egidio is designed as an engine that keeps learning rather than a static filter.
Frequently asked questions
Who produces these projections for 2030?
ENISA (the European Union's cybersecurity agency) has published a dedicated foresight exercise since 2023, updated in 2024, built with industry experts through a structured method (Delphi survey, scenario workshops).
Are these certain predictions?
No — these are trajectories judged most likely and most impactful by a panel of experts, not certainties. They're meant to guide defense priorities, not predict a single scenario.
Do these threats only concern businesses?
No. Several, like AI abuse or disinformation, have a direct impact on individuals — in the phone and text scams that The Threat Laboratory already documents today.
Other markets we cover
ENISA's exercise is European, but national cybersecurity agencies elsewhere are documenting the same trajectory, in their own words.
🇦🇺Australia — AI "almost certainly" enables faster, larger-scale attacks
The Australian Signals Directorate's Annual Cyber Threat Report 2024–25 states that the prevalence of AI "almost certainly" enables malicious actors to run attacks at greater scale and speed, including AI-managed botnets that adapt in real time to evade detection. The same report flags a cryptographically relevant quantum computer as a threat "on the horizon," pushing organizations to prepare now for post-quantum cryptography.
Australian Signals Directorate (ACSC), Annual Cyber Threat Report 2024–25, October 2025.🇬🇧United Kingdom — AI to raise the ransomware threat within two years
The NCSC (the UK's National Cyber Security Centre) assesses that AI will "almost certainly" increase the volume and impact of cyberattacks, including ransomware, in the near term — by lowering the skill barrier for novice attackers and hackers-for-hire to run effective reconnaissance and access operations.
National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), The near-term impact of AI on the cyber threat, 2025.🇨🇦Canada — AI named as one of five trends shaping threats through 2026
The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security's National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026 names AI as one of five key trends reshaping the country's threat environment: threat actors already use it to produce more convincing phishing, voice scams and deepfake impersonation "faster and at greater scale," and to let less-skilled actors run more sophisticated attacks.
Canadian Centre for Cyber Security, National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–2026.🇮🇳India — AI compresses attacks from weeks to hours
CERT-In (India's Computer Emergency Response Team) published a blueprint in May 2026 warning that AI now automates the scanning, exploit-writing and launch of attacks — compressing what used to take days or weeks into hours. Separately, the I4C (Indian Cybercrime Coordination Centre) has advised that AI-generated deepfakes and synthetic identities are increasingly used to bypass facial authentication and Video-KYC checks.
CERT-In, AI-assisted cyber threat blueprint, May 2026; I4C advisory, 2026.Go further
Egidio — The Threat Laboratory, "Threats 2030: what cybersecurity agencies are projecting", egidio.app/en/laboratoire/threats-2030/. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
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