Egidio — Threat Lab · The Mathematics of Manipulation Report · v1.0 · July 2026 · License CC BY 4.0 · egidio.app/en/laboratoire/mathematics-of-manipulation/
The thesis
A mass scam doesn't need to know who you are. It only needs a scenario, sent to a very large number of people, to land statistically true for a fraction of them. That's arithmetic, not targeting.
The formula that runs through all 9 demonstrations of the full pillar.
Three demonstrations
1. The fake package
6.8 billion parcels delivered in the US in a single year, with 18.6 million damaged or lost claims. A randomly sent text mechanically reaches hundreds of thousands of people who are genuinely expecting a delivery — no personal data required.
2. The retreat of the human touch
Over 6,005 UK bank branches — more than 60% of the entire network — have closed since 2015, with the same retreat underway across the US, Australia, and Canada. Fewer familiar faces in banking means fewer cues to catch an impersonator — and a message claiming to be "your bank" lands right, often, by simple probability.
3. The speed of thought
$391 million lost to Venmo, Cash App, Zelle, and PayPal scams in the US in 2024, plus £450.7 million to instant-payment fraud in the UK. Instant transfers removed the delay that once let people reconsider — and the disappearance of that pause mechanically raises the risk of falling into a fraudulent scenario.
Methodology
Every figure cited in this report comes from a dated, verified primary official source, checked by direct consultation of the source document or site. No calculation assumption is presented as a measured fact: the formula above is a combined-probability reasoning applied to public rates, not an official data point in itself. Our full doctrine — claimed vs. confirmed, omission over invention, primary sources over summaries — is detailed on our Methodology page.
How to cite this publication
Egidio, Threat Lab, "The Mathematics of Manipulation Report," v1.0, 2026, egidio.app/en/publications/mathematics-of-manipulation-report/
Rigor note. This report derives three demonstrations from the full pillar, which counts nine in total — see the full web version for the other six (the scam calendar, fake recruiters, AI industrializes plausibility, the multichannel funnel, and the interactive Coincidence Surface calculator). Every figure remains identical to its original source — this publication doesn't recalculate anything, it synthesizes. License CC BY 4.0.
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Egidio — The Threat Laboratory, "The Mathematics of Manipulation Report — Egidio Publication", egidio.app/en/publications/mathematics-of-manipulation-report/. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
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